Seven years ago, on October 30, 2017, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway corridor was inaugurated. This middle transport corridor connects Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. However, the railway corridor, which was intended to generate profit for the Georgian economy, essentially remains in a testing phase. According to industry specialists, the project has failed to meet expectations, and even after seven years, the railway has not achieved full operational capacity.
Moreover, Georgian stakeholders were meant to repay the loan obtained from Azerbaijan using profits from these transit operations, which exceeds 920 million dollars in total.
Initial projections suggested that at full capacity, the mainline would handle between 2 to 5 million tons of cargo flow. However, industry experts assert that these expectations were not realized. In the current situation, the railway manages to transport half a million tons of cargo. “Practically, the railway operates at 10-15% capacity, despite initial discussions of 5 million tons of cargo flow,” states Paata Tsagareishvili, Director of the Transport Corridor Center, in conversation with Maisi.News.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars section has been operating in pilot mode for years. The first commercial voyage was completed this May. The freight train transported 632 tons of plastic raw materials in 20 containers from Baku to Kars. However, information about subsequent cargo shipments remains unavailable publicly. Georgian Railways has not yet responded to our inquiries regarding whether additional shipments were made after May, what the current cargo turnover is, and what the transportation tariffs are. Railway officials indicated they would investigate these matters.
Precise data on Georgia’s transit revenue through the BTK railway has not yet been published in open sources, citing commercial interests of freight carriers.
However, it is known that in May 2024, the modernization of Georgia’s section, funded by Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) at a cost of 250 million US dollars, increased the railway’s total capacity from one million to 5 million tons, with future plans targeting an increase to 17 million tons.
The 826-kilometer BTK line, connecting Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s railway networks, provides rapid and accessible rail transit between China, Central Asia, and Europe. The route, from Baku through Tbilisi to Kars in northeastern Turkey, reduces land freight delivery time to 15 days, compared to the previous 25-45 days.
Azerbaijan’s ADY signed agreements with Chinese companies in September to streamline cargo delivery.
Since early 2024, over 210 container trains carrying 420,000 tons of imported and transit goods, primarily Chinese-manufactured, have arrived in Azerbaijan via this line. By year’s end, expectations indicate that over 300 container trains will traverse westward to Azerbaijan and European markets, with an ultimate goal of dispatching approximately one thousand such formations annually.
Increased cargo shipments through Georgia and Azerbaijan have prompted additional investments to expand international corridor capacities. Pre-pandemic transit cargo volume in 2019 was 3.8 million tons via BTK, while in 2023, shipment volume reached 6.8 million tons.
According to open data, Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) reported a 14% increase in transit rail cargo volume in January-April 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, with first-quarter growth at 10%.
During the first nine months of 2024, middle corridor cargo volume increased by 70%, reaching 3.4 million tons. Container shipments, comprising a significant portion of total cargo, tripled compared to the same period last year, reaching 34,600 TEU.
Furthermore, container transit from China has increased twentyfold since the beginning of the year.
Three major companies participate in the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars project: Turkish State Railways (TCDD) – serving the Turkish section, connecting it to the international network, and facilitating cargo access to the European market; Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) – the primary operator and investor in BTK railway infrastructure modernization in both Azerbaijani and Georgian sections, including recent capacity expansion funding; and Georgian Railways (GR), which ensures cargo transportation within Georgia’s territory and supports only its own section’s modernization within the project framework.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Georgia’s transit role has significantly increased, generating realistic expectations for increased cargo flow along Georgia’s middle corridor, specifically including the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway section. However, specialists explain this has not materialized. Official statistics show decreased cargo turnover in 2023.
According to the Transport Corridor Center’s research, transit shipments decreased by 11%. This includes reduced container shipments along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars route.
“This indicates that Georgian Railways failed to accomplish the specific task of attracting cargo flows from alternative corridors. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway operates at no more than 10-15% capacity. The main reasons are high tariffs, lack of coordination, and monopoly. Cargo flow was supposed to increase from 2 to 5 million tons, but this target wasn’t met,” stated Paata Tsagareishvili, Director of the Transport Corridor Center.
According to the specialist, in the new geopolitical situation, Georgian Railways is not utilizing its economic potential. For reference, in 2023, the Azerbaijani side invested an additional 120 million dollars in the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars project. However, it remains evident that the railway continues to operate below full capacity, while official agencies provide no explanations on this matter. Meanwhile, the country is losing millions of lari, whereas specialists suggest Georgia’s annual transit shipping revenue across all routes could potentially reach 960 million US dollars.
Salome Gogokhia
Konstantine Stalinsky
