Three days before Georgia’s October 26, 2024 parliamentary elections, three TV stations (TV Formula, Mtavari, and Imedi) published public opinion polls regarding the upcoming elections.
For the context, parties must surpass a 5% threshold to enter the parliament. Other significant thresholds include no less than 33.3% needed to pass ordinary laws or make other parliamentary decisions, no less than 50% – required for adoption of organic laws (concerning matters of special importance), for forming the executive government and adopting the governmental program, and no less than 66.6% needed for constitutional laws.
According to all three polls, at least these parties are likely to clear the minimum 5% threshold: “Georgian Dream,” “United National Movement,” and “Coalition for Change Gvaramia Melia Girchi Droa” (so-called “Akhali” {New}). However, forecasts about the vote distribution and whether other parties surpass the barrier, varies across the three polls:
*Table includes only parties that reached the 5% threshold in at least one poll.
The polls were conducted by Savanta Group for Mtavari TV, Edison Research for Formula TV, and Gorbi for Imedi TV. All surveys were conducted through face-to-face interviews in October.
According to Media Checker’s September 30 publication about verifying public opinion poll reliability, polls should meet these key requirements, among others:
- Use recognized scientific random sampling methodology that ensures at least 95% reliability with a margin of error not exceeding 3%;
- Publish the reliability methodology of the public opinion survey;
Through checking online posts about the polls, published on October 23, information about Savanta Group and Edison Research sampling methods and reliability information were found, with additional clarifications available in Jam-news.net’s materials:
*Table includes key information, found from publicly published sources.
Additional information about the polls:
